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Collerense vs CE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Collerense
Collerense
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
CE Sant Jordi
CE Sant Jordi
2/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 20Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Collerense69%
×Draw17%
CE Sant Jordi13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collerense
2.43
CE Sant Jordi
0.96

Collerense creates 153% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Collerense
1.26
CE Sant Jordi
0.60

allows per match

Collerense
1.31
CE Sant Jordi
3.60

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par
CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

CE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Collerense or draw
87%
Collerense or CE Sant Jordi
83%
Draw or CE Sant Jordi
31%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+
47%
CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals
91%
Collerense 2+ goals
69%
Collerense 3+ goals
43%
CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
62%
CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
25%
CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)
84%
CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

CE Sant Jordi away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + CE Sant Jordi defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.43

CE Sant Jordi attack 0.60 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Collerense scores more
69%
level
17%
CE Sant Jordi scores more
13%

Collerense at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Collerense 4 – 2 CE Sant Jordi

Collerense beat CE Sant Jordi 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa in Mallorca.