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CE Sant Jordi vs Collerense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

CE Sant Jordi
CE Sant Jordi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Collerense
Collerense
10/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 5Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CE Sant Jordi33%
×Draw23%
Collerense45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CE Sant Jordi
1.54
Collerense
1.83

Collerense creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 113 away

creates per match

CE Sant Jordi
1.20
Collerense
1.00

allows per match

CE Sant Jordi
2.67
Collerense
1.88

finishing

CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par
Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CE Sant Jordi ↓

Collerense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

CE Sant Jordi or draw
55%
CE Sant Jordi or Collerense
77%
Draw or Collerense
67%

Winning margin

CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
15%
Collerense wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
79%
CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
45%
CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
20%
Collerense 1+ goals
84%
Collerense 2+ goals
54%
Collerense 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
42%
Collerense (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CE Sant Jordi attack 1.20 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Collerense attack 1.00 + CE Sant Jordi defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CE Sant Jordi scores more
33%
level
23%
Collerense scores more
45%

Collerense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CE Sant Jordi 2 – 2 Collerense

CE Sant Jordi and Collerense drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa in Mallorca.