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Collerense vs Arenal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Collerense
Collerense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arenal
Arenal
3/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 24Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Collerense53%
×Draw25%
Arenal22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collerense
1.60
Arenal
0.95

Collerense creates 68% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 17 away

creates per match

Collerense
1.26
Arenal
0.59

allows per match

Collerense
1.31
Arenal
1.94

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par
Arenal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

Arenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Collerense or draw
78%
Collerense or Arenal
75%
Draw or Arenal
47%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+
28%
Arenal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals
80%
Collerense 2+ goals
47%
Collerense 3+ goals
22%
Arenal 1+ goals
61%
Arenal 2+ goals
25%
Arenal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)
70%
Arenal (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Arenal away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + Arenal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

Arenal attack 0.59 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Collerense scores more
53%
level
25%
Arenal scores more
22%

Collerense at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Collerense 1–2 Arenal

Arenal beat Collerense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa in Mallorca.