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Arenal vs Collerense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Arenal
Arenal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Collerense
Collerense
10/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 7Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenal42%
×Draw25%
Collerense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenal
1.47
Collerense
1.27

Arenal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 113 away

creates per match

Arenal
1.06
Collerense
1.00

allows per match

Arenal
1.53
Collerense
1.88

finishing

Arenal+0.00on par
Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenal ↓

Collerense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arenal or draw
67%
Arenal or Collerense
75%
Draw or Collerense
58%

Winning margin

Arenal wins by 2+
20%
Collerense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arenal 1+ goals
77%
Arenal 2+ goals
43%
Arenal 3+ goals
18%
Collerense 1+ goals
72%
Collerense 2+ goals
36%
Collerense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Arenal (draw refunded)
56%
Collerense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenal at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenal attack 1.06 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.47

Collerense attack 1.00 + Arenal defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arenal scores more
42%
level
25%
Collerense scores more
33%

Arenal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Arenal 2–2 Collerense

Arenal and Collerense drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Son Verí in S'Arenal de Llucmajor.