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Collado Villalba vs Aravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Aravaca
Aravaca
4/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 32Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Collado Villalba43%
×Draw26%
Aravaca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collado Villalba
1.44
Aravaca
1.16

Collado Villalba creates 24% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 17 away

creates per match

Collado Villalba
1.35
Aravaca
0.76

allows per match

Collado Villalba
1.55
Aravaca
1.53

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par
Aravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Aravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw
70%
Collado Villalba or Aravaca
74%
Draw or Aravaca
57%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+
21%
Aravaca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals
76%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
42%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
18%
Aravaca 1+ goals
69%
Aravaca 2+ goals
32%
Aravaca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
59%
Aravaca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Aravaca away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Aravaca attack 0.76 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Collado Villalba scores more
43%
level
26%
Aravaca scores more
30%

Collado Villalba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Collado Villalba vs Aravaca

Collado Villalba beat Aravaca 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares in Alcalá de Henares.