Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aravaca vs Collado Villalba — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Aravaca
Aravaca
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
12/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Estadio Antonio Sanfíz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aravaca40%
×Draw26%
Collado Villalba34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aravaca
1.38
Collado Villalba
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Aravaca
1.71
Collado Villalba
1.02

allows per match

Aravaca
1.53
Collado Villalba
1.04

finishing

Aravaca+0.00on par
Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aravaca ↓

Collado Villalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aravaca or draw
66%
Aravaca or Collado Villalba
74%
Draw or Collado Villalba
60%

Winning margin

Aravaca wins by 2+
18%
Collado Villalba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aravaca 1+ goals
75%
Aravaca 2+ goals
40%
Aravaca 3+ goals
16%
Collado Villalba 1+ goals
72%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
36%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aravaca (draw refunded)
53%
Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aravaca at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Collado Villalba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aravaca attack 1.71 + Collado Villalba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.38

Collado Villalba attack 1.02 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aravaca scores more
40%
level
26%
Collado Villalba scores more
34%

Aravaca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aravaca vs Collado Villalba

Aravaca and Collado Villalba drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Sanfíz in Madrid.