Collado Villalba 1–0 Alcorcón II: Result & Stats

Collado Villalba

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alcorcón II

3/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 26Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Collado Villalba33%

×Draw26%

Alcorcón II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Collado VillalbaExpected goals in this matchAlcorcón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.41

Collado Villalba

1.23

Alcorcón II

1.41

Alcorcón II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 97 away

1.35

creates per match

1.26

1.55

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Collado Villalba

1.35

Alcorcón II

1.26

allows per match

Collado Villalba

1.55

Alcorcón II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Alcorcón II →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw

59%

Collado Villalba or Alcorcón II

74%

Draw or Alcorcón II

67%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+

14%

Alcorcón II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals

71%

Collado Villalba 2+ goals

35%

Collado Villalba 3+ goals

13%

Alcorcón II 1+ goals

76%

Alcorcón II 2+ goals

41%

Alcorcón II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)

44%

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Collado Villalba scores more

33%

level

26%

Alcorcón II scores more

41%

Alcorcón II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Collado Villalba vs Alcorcón II

Collado Villalba beat Alcorcón II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.

Collado Villalba vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Collado Villalba vs Alcorcón II