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Alcorcón II vs Collado Villalba — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
11/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Alcorcón II43%
×Draw28%
Collado Villalba29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.26
Collado Villalba
0.98

Alcorcón II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 49 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
Collado Villalba
1.02

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
Collado Villalba
1.04

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Collado Villalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
71%
Alcorcón II or Collado Villalba
72%
Draw or Collado Villalba
57%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
19%
Collado Villalba wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
72%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
36%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
13%
Collado Villalba 1+ goals
62%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
26%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
60%
Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Collado Villalba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Collado Villalba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.26

Collado Villalba attack 1.02 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
43%
level
28%
Collado Villalba scores more
29%

Alcorcón II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcón II vs Collado Villalba

Collado Villalba beat Alcorcón II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 1, 2024.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.