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Colegios Diocesanos vs Bembibre — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bembibre
Bembibre
11/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos38%
×Draw28%
Bembibre34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
1.23
Bembibre
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 110 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
Bembibre
0.82

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
Bembibre
1.51

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Bembibre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
66%
Colegios Diocesanos or Bembibre
72%
Draw or Bembibre
62%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
16%
Bembibre wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
71%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
35%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
13%
Bembibre 1+ goals
68%
Bembibre 2+ goals
32%
Bembibre 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
53%
Bembibre (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bembibre attack 0.82 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
38%
level
28%
Bembibre scores more
34%

Colegios Diocesanos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Colegios Diocesanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Colegios Diocesanos 0–0 Bembibre

Colegios Diocesanos and Bembibre drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.