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Bembibre vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
4/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 29Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bembibre47%
×Draw28%
Colegios Diocesanos24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.31
Colegios Diocesanos
0.85

Bembibre creates 54% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
Colegios Diocesanos
0.56

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
Colegios Diocesanos
1.58

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
76%
Bembibre or Colegios Diocesanos
72%
Draw or Colegios Diocesanos
53%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
22%
Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
73%
Bembibre 2+ goals
38%
Bembibre 3+ goals
14%
Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
57%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
21%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
66%
Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bembibre scores more
47%
level
28%
Colegios Diocesanos scores more
24%

Bembibre at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Bembibre 2–0 Colegios Diocesanos

Bembibre beat Colegios Diocesanos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1 in Bembibre.