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Colegios Diocesanos vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
9/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos29%
×Draw28%
Atlético Tordesillas43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
1.00
Atlético Tordesillas
1.30

Atlético Tordesillas creates 30% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 110 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
57%
Colegios Diocesanos or Atlético Tordesillas
72%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
71%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
63%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
26%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
40%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
29%
level
28%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
43%

Atlético Tordesillas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colegios Diocesanos vs Atlético Tordesillas

Atlético Tordesillas beat Colegios Diocesanos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.