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Atlético Tordesillas vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
4/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 34Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas58%
×Draw26%
Colegios Diocesanos16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.50
Colegios Diocesanos
0.63

Atlético Tordesillas creates 138% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 66 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
Colegios Diocesanos
0.56

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
Colegios Diocesanos
1.58

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
84%
Atlético Tordesillas or Colegios Diocesanos
74%
Draw or Colegios Diocesanos
42%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
31%
Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
44%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
19%
Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
47%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
13%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
79%
Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
58%
level
26%
Colegios Diocesanos scores more
16%

Atlético Tordesillas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tordesillas 2 – 1 Colegios Diocesanos

Atlético Tordesillas beat Colegios Diocesanos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.