Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Colchester vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
Preview
14:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
8/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 3
Big match
44%
Colchester
model favours
44%28%28%

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Colchester44%
×Draw28%
Rochdale28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.34
Rochdale
1.02

Colchester creates 31% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 56 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.32
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Colchester
1.10
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
72%
Colchester or Rochdale
72%
Draw or Rochdale
56%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
20%
Rochdale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
74%
Colchester 2+ goals
39%
Colchester 3+ goals
15%
Rochdale 1+ goals
64%
Rochdale 2+ goals
27%
Rochdale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
61%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Colchester scores more
44%
level
28%
Rochdale scores more
28%

Colchester at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Colchester
Balanced
Rochdale
Balanced
50%Possession52%
71%Pass accuracy70%
11.2ShotsBiggest gap10.4
1.29xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ColchesterRochdale

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Colchester
4
Draws
5
Rochdale
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 80%
2–10–11–11–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Colchester
LWWDW
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colchester vs Rochdale — Match Preview

Colchester face Rochdale on August 29, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.