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Colchester vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Colchester
Colchester
Preview
14:00
Oldham
Oldham
8/22/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 2
Big match
43%
Colchester
model favours
43%28%29%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Colchester43%
×Draw28%
Oldham29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.28
Oldham
1.00

Colchester creates 28% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 31 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.33
Oldham
1.19

allows per match

Colchester
0.82
Oldham
1.23

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
71%
Colchester or Oldham
72%
Draw or Oldham
57%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
19%
Oldham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
72%
Colchester 2+ goals
37%
Colchester 3+ goals
14%
Oldham 1+ goals
63%
Oldham 2+ goals
26%
Oldham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
60%
Oldham (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.82 · 49 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.33 + Oldham defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Oldham attack 1.19 + Colchester defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colchester scores more
43%
level
28%
Oldham scores more
29%

Colchester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Colchester play Possession-dominant, Oldham Defensively solid
  • Colchester fall short of their xG (0.6 vs 1.1 expected)
  • Oldham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.3 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Colchester
Possession-dominant
Oldham
Defensively solid
55%Possession48%
73%Pass accuracyBiggest gap63%
12.1Shots11.7
1.14xG1.28
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ColchesterOldham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Colchester
2
Draws
2
Oldham
Avg goals: 3.6BTTS: 100%
1–31–11–12–12–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Colchester
DWLLW
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colchester vs Oldham — Match Preview

Colchester face Oldham on August 22, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.