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Colchester vs Oldham — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
CANC
00:00
Oldham
Oldham
4/13/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 44JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Colchester43%
×Draw26%
Oldham30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.41
Oldham
1.13

Colchester creates 25% more chances

Season form · 180 home / 111 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.37
Oldham
1.16

allows per match

Colchester
1.09
Oldham
1.45

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
70%
Colchester or Oldham
74%
Draw or Oldham
57%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
21%
Oldham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
76%
Colchester 2+ goals
41%
Colchester 3+ goals
17%
Oldham 1+ goals
68%
Oldham 2+ goals
31%
Oldham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
59%
Oldham (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 180 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.37 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Oldham attack 1.16 + Colchester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colchester scores more
43%
level
26%
Oldham scores more
30%

Colchester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colchester vs Oldham — Match Preview

Colchester face Oldham on April 13, 2020 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Colchester host Oldham at JobServe Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.