Colchester 5–4 Notts County: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

5 – 4

HT: 3 – 1

Notts County

A. Read 74', 38'

C. McGeehan 58'

J. Fevrier 31'

N. Chilvers 10'

M. Langstaff 90+2', 48'

J. Jones 67'

S. Austin 21'

9/30/2023

League Two · Round 10JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Colchester49%

×Draw26%

Notts County25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.96

Colchester

1.48

Notts County

0.96

Colchester creates 54% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.41

creates per match

0.92

0.99

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Colchester

1.41

Notts County

0.92

allows per match

Colchester

0.99

Notts County

1.55

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more

Notts County+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Notts County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

75%

Colchester or Notts County

74%

Draw or Notts County

51%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

25%

Notts County wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

77%

Colchester 2+ goals

43%

Colchester 3+ goals

19%

Notts County 1+ goals

62%

Notts County 2+ goals

25%

Notts County 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

67%

Notts County (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Notts County away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.55 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Notts County defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Notts County attack 0.92 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colchester scores more

49%

level

26%

Notts County scores more

25%

Colchester at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Langstaff

Notts County · F

8.5

Match Events

10'

14'

21'

21'

31'

37'

38'

46'

J. Bostock← S. Austin

48'

M. Langstaff↳ K. Cameron

54'

Kyle Cameron

58'

C. McGeehan↳ J. Taylor

61'

J. O'Brien← M. Palmer

61'

O. Adebayo-Rowling← A. Nemane

67'

68'

71'

72'

74'

75'

79'

79'

86'

90'

W. Greenidge← J. Fevrier

90+2'

M. Langstaff↳ J. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterNotts

Overview

35%Possession65%

15Total Shots21

3Corners8

8Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots21

8On Target7

3Off Target9

4Blocked5

8Inside Box16

7Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

323Total Passes582

268Accurate Passes522

83%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls9

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1