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Colchester vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
Preview
15:00
Northampton
Northampton
1/23/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 27
Big match
39%
Colchester
model favours
39%27%34%

Northampton have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Colchester39%
×Draw27%
Northampton34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.28
Northampton
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 161 home / 88 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.32
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Colchester
1.10
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
66%
Colchester or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
61%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
17%
Northampton wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
72%
Colchester 2+ goals
37%
Colchester 3+ goals
14%
Northampton 1+ goals
69%
Northampton 2+ goals
33%
Northampton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
54%
Northampton (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Northampton attack 1.24 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchester scores more
39%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
34%

Colchester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Colchester
Balanced
Northampton
Balanced
50%Possession48%
71%Pass accuracyBiggest gap65%
11.2Shots11.9
1.27xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ColchesterNorthampton

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Colchester
0
Draws
4
Northampton
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 20%
0–12–30–30–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Colchester
LWWDW
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colchester vs Northampton — Match Preview

Colchester face Northampton on January 23, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.