Colchester 2–2 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Carlisle

T. Wright 74'

T. Smith 69'

T. Sho-Silva 86'

O. Patrick 51'

2/12/2022

League Two · Round 32JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Colchester42%

×Draw27%

Carlisle30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.08

Colchester

1.33

Carlisle

1.08

Colchester creates 23% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 115 away

1.32

creates per match

1.07

1.10

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Colchester

1.32

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Colchester

1.10

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

70%

Colchester or Carlisle

73%

Draw or Carlisle

58%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

19%

Carlisle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

74%

Colchester 2+ goals

38%

Colchester 3+ goals

15%

Carlisle 1+ goals

66%

Carlisle 2+ goals

29%

Carlisle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

58%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Colchester scores more

42%

level

27%

Carlisle scores more

30%

Colchester at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

T. Sho-Silva

Carlisle · F

8.3

Match Events

33'

Joe Riley

41'

Mitchell Roberts

51'

O. Patrick↳ T. Sho-Silva

61'

T. Wright← T. Eastman

65'

69'

70'

74'

79'

K. Dennis← O. Windsor

84'

E. Huws← B. Sarpong-Wiredu

86'

T. Sho-Silva↳ J. Riley

87'

J. Devitt← T. Sho-Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterCarlisle

Overview

63%Possession37%

18Total Shots6

8Corners1

10Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots6

4On Target4

10Off Target2

4Blocked0

10Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

467Total Passes288

320Accurate Passes125

69%Pass Accuracy43%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0