Carlisle 1–0 Colchester: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Colchester

A. McCalmont 4'

2/18/2023

League Two · Round 33Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle41%

×Draw28%

Colchester31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

Carlisle

1.29

Colchester

1.08

Carlisle creates 19% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 159 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

1.21

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

69%

Carlisle or Colchester

72%

Draw or Colchester

59%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

19%

Colchester wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

72%

Carlisle 2+ goals

37%

Carlisle 3+ goals

14%

Colchester 1+ goals

66%

Colchester 2+ goals

29%

Colchester 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

57%

Colchester (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Colchester attack 0.96 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carlisle scores more

41%

level

28%

Colchester scores more

31%

Carlisle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

P. Huntington

Carlisle · D

7.7

Match Events

4'

A. McCalmont

54'

T. Hopper← S. Tovide

54'

M. Jay← O. Ashley

55'

A. Newby← W. Greenidge

65'

K. Dennis← O. Patrick

65'

J. Gordon← J. Garner

76'

J. Akinde← C. Wood

80'

C. Whelan← J. Ellis

84'

J. Gibson← A. McCalmont

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleColchester

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots8

1Corners5

7Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots8

3On Target0

6Off Target5

3Blocked3

7Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

321Total Passes433

179Accurate Passes280

56%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls7

1Offsides0