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Colchester vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
Preview
15:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
3/6/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 34
Big match
52%
Colchester
model favours
52%25%23%
1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Colchester52%
×Draw25%
Accrington ST23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.57
Accrington ST
0.95

Colchester creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.46
Accrington ST
0.90

allows per match

Colchester
1.00
Accrington ST
1.69

finishing

Colchester+0.08on par
Accrington ST-0.10scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
77%
Colchester or Accrington ST
75%
Draw or Accrington ST
48%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
27%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
79%
Colchester 2+ goals
46%
Colchester 3+ goals
21%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
61%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
25%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
69%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.46 + Accrington ST defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.57

Accrington ST attack 0.90 + Colchester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Colchester scores more
52%
level
25%
Accrington ST scores more
23%

Colchester at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Colchester
Balanced
Accrington ST
Balanced
51%Possession47%
71%Pass accuracy62%
11.3Shots11.4
1.29xGBiggest gap0.94
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ColchesterAccrington ST

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Colchester
2
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 50%
2–10–10–21–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Colchester
LWWDW
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colchester vs Accrington ST — Match Preview

Colchester face Accrington ST on March 6, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.