Accrington ST 1–0 Colchester: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Colchester

I. Sinclair 32'

9/13/2025

League Two · Round 8The Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Accrington ST36%

×Draw28%

Colchester36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

Accrington ST

1.17

Colchester

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

1.14

creates per match

1.12

1.21

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.14

Colchester

1.12

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.21

Colchester

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

64%

Accrington ST or Colchester

72%

Draw or Colchester

64%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

15%

Colchester wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

69%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

33%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

11%

Colchester 1+ goals

69%

Colchester 2+ goals

33%

Colchester 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

50%

Colchester (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.14 + Colchester defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Colchester attack 1.12 + Accrington ST defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Accrington ST scores more

36%

level

28%

Colchester scores more

36%

Accrington ST at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

I. Sinclair

Accrington ST · F

8.2

Match Events

30'

Joshua Smith

32'

I. Sinclair↳ C. Brown

36'

T. Smith← M. Macey

45+3'

Harvey Araujo

46'

C. Caton← P. Madden

46'

J. Williams← J. Payne

46'

J. Powell← J. Baldwin

57'

60'

62'

62'

65'

D. Love← C. Brown

70'

Donald Love

70'

Jaden Williams

82'

L. Coyle← S. Conneely

86'

Owura Edwards

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonColchester

Overview

42%Possession58%

16Total Shots5

5Corners4

15Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots5

8On Target0

4Off Target4

4Blocked1

11Inside Box2

5Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

245Total Passes353

142Accurate Passes261

58%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2

League Two: Accrington ST 1–0 Colchester

Accrington ST beat Colchester 1-0 in League Two on September 13, 2025.

Goals: I. Sinclair (32').

Colchester controlled possession (58%) and registered 5 shots to 16.

The match was played at The Wham Stadium in Accrington.

Accrington ST vs Colchester — League Two 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Accrington ST 1–0 Colchester