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Accrington ST vs Colchester — League Two 2025

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Colchester
Colchester
K. Mooney 25'
B. Goodliffe 85'
8/31/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Accrington ST36%
×Draw28%
Colchester36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.17
Colchester
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.14
Colchester
1.12

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.21
Colchester
1.19

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
64%
Accrington ST or Colchester
72%
Draw or Colchester
64%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
15%
Colchester wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
69%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
33%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
11%
Colchester 1+ goals
69%
Colchester 2+ goals
33%
Colchester 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
50%
Colchester (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.14 + Colchester defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Colchester attack 1.12 + Accrington ST defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Accrington ST scores more
36%
level
28%
Colchester scores more
36%

Accrington ST at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
S. WhalleyAccrington STAccrington ST · M
7.6

Match Events

2'
Zach Awe
25'
K. Mooney↳ S. Whalley
45+1'
Donald Love
46'
L. Taylor← T. Hopper
55'
A. Read← A. Woodyard
55'
O. Edwards← J. Gordon
63'
N. Khumbeni← J. Knowles
65'
H. Anderson← R. Hunt
69'
B. Woods← S. Conneely
75'
Farrend Rawson
75'
B. Goodliffe← E. Bishop
84'
Tyler Walton
85'
B. Goodliffe
86'
D. Costelloe← T. Walton
86'
J. Batty← K. Mooney
87'
Benjamin Woods

Possession

39%Accrington

Shots

13Accrington

Pass accuracy

45%Accrington

Statistics

AccringtonColchester
Overview
39%Possession61%
13Total Shots10
5Corners3
21Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots10
3On Target5
7Off Target2
3Blocked3
10Inside Box7
3Outside Box3
Passing
39%Possession61%
269Total Passes435
170Accurate Passes329
63%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
21Fouls9
5Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Accrington ST vs Colchester

Accrington ST and Colchester drew 1-1 in League Two on August 31, 2024.

Goals: K. Mooney (25'), B. Goodliffe (85').

Colchester controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Wham Stadium in Accrington, Lancashire.