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CODM Meknès vs Chabab Ben Guerir — Botola 2 2025

CODM Meknès
CODM Meknès
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
10/8/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 5Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CODM Meknès50%
×Draw27%
Chabab Ben Guerir23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CODM Meknès
1.41
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.85

CODM Meknès creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

creates per match

CODM Meknès
1.60
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.83

allows per match

CODM Meknès
0.87
Chabab Ben Guerir
1.21

finishing

CODM Meknès+0.00on par
Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CODM Meknès ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CODM Meknès or draw
77%
CODM Meknès or Chabab Ben Guerir
73%
Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir
50%

Winning margin

CODM Meknès wins by 2+
25%
Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CODM Meknès 1+ goals
76%
CODM Meknès 2+ goals
41%
CODM Meknès 3+ goals
17%
Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
57%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
21%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)
69%
Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CODM Meknès at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CODM Meknès attack 1.60 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.83 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CODM Meknès scores more
50%
level
27%
Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
23%

CODM Meknès at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CODM Meknès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: CODM Meknès 1–0 Chabab Ben Guerir

CODM Meknès beat Chabab Ben Guerir 1-0 in Botola 2 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.