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Chabab Ben Guerir vs CODM Meknès — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CODM Meknès
CODM Meknès
3/16/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 20Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir35%
×Draw34%
CODM Meknès31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.90
CODM Meknès
0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.93
CODM Meknès
0.93

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.74
CODM Meknès
0.87

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par
CODM Meknès+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

CODM Meknès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw
69%
Chabab Ben Guerir or CODM Meknès
66%
Draw or CODM Meknès
65%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
12%
CODM Meknès wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
59%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
23%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
6%
CODM Meknès 1+ goals
56%
CODM Meknès 2+ goals
20%
CODM Meknès 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
53%
CODM Meknès (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 120 matches

CODM Meknès away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.93 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.90

CODM Meknès attack 0.93 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
35%
level
34%
CODM Meknès scores more
31%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Ben Guerir vs CODM Meknès

Chabab Ben Guerir and CODM Meknès drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Ben Guerir in Ben Guerir.