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Cockburn City vs Rockingham City — Western Australia NPL 2026

Cockburn City
Cockburn City
FT
0 – 2
Rockingham City
Rockingham City
4/13/2019Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 5Dalmatinac Park (Spearwood)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cockburn City57%
×Draw20%
Rockingham City23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cockburn City
2.25
Rockingham City
1.36

Cockburn City creates 65% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cockburn City
1.50
Rockingham City
1.03

allows per match

Cockburn City
1.70
Rockingham City
3.00

finishing

Cockburn City+0.00on par
Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cockburn City ↓

Rockingham City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Cockburn City or draw
77%
Cockburn City or Rockingham City
80%
Draw or Rockingham City
43%

Winning margin

Cockburn City wins by 2+
35%
Rockingham City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cockburn City 1+ goals
89%
Cockburn City 2+ goals
65%
Cockburn City 3+ goals
39%
Rockingham City 1+ goals
74%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
39%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cockburn City (draw refunded)
72%
Rockingham City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cockburn City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 56 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.03, concedes 3.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cockburn City attack 1.50 + Rockingham City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Rockingham City attack 1.03 + Cockburn City defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cockburn City scores more
57%
level
20%
Rockingham City scores more
23%

Cockburn City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cockburn City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Cockburn City 0–2 Rockingham City

Rockingham City beat Cockburn City 2-0 in Western Australia NPL on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Dalmatinac Park (Spearwood).