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Cobresal vs Barnechea — Primera B 2018

Cobresal
Cobresal
CANC
00:00
Barnechea
Barnechea
8/4/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 18Estadio El Cobre (El Salvador, Diego de Almagro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cobresal61%
×Draw24%
Barnechea15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobresal
1.69
Barnechea
0.69

Cobresal creates 145% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 95 away

creates per match

Cobresal
1.86
Barnechea
1.09

allows per match

Cobresal
0.29
Barnechea
1.52

finishing

Cobresal+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw
85%
Cobresal or Barnechea
76%
Draw or Barnechea
39%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+
35%
Barnechea wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals
82%
Cobresal 2+ goals
50%
Cobresal 3+ goals
24%
Barnechea 1+ goals
50%
Barnechea 2+ goals
15%
Barnechea 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)
80%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.86 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Cobresal defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cobresal scores more
61%
level
24%
Barnechea scores more
15%

Cobresal at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cobresal vs Barnechea — Match Preview

Cobresal face Barnechea on August 4, 2018 in this Primera B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cobresal host Barnechea at Estadio El Cobre (El Salvador, Diego de Almagro).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.