Barnechea 3–3 Cobresal: Result & Stats | Primera B

Barnechea

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Cobresal

3/31/2018

Primera B · Round 8Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea (Santiago de Chile)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Barnechea45%

×Draw26%

Cobresal30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnecheaExpected goals in this matchCobresal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

Barnechea

1.50

Cobresal

1.17

Barnechea creates 28% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Barnechea

1.50

Cobresal

1.13

allows per match

Barnechea

1.21

Cobresal

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par

Cobresal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Cobresal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw

70%

Barnechea or Cobresal

74%

Draw or Cobresal

55%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+

22%

Cobresal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals

78%

Barnechea 2+ goals

44%

Barnechea 3+ goals

19%

Cobresal 1+ goals

69%

Cobresal 2+ goals

33%

Cobresal 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)

60%

Cobresal (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Cobresal away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + Cobresal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cobresal attack 1.13 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Barnechea scores more

45%

level

26%

Cobresal scores more

30%

Barnechea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff