Cobreloa 0–3 A. Italiano: Result & Stats

Cobreloa

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

A. Italiano

G. Álvarez 68'

I. Jeraldino 45+2'

A. Riep 37'

4/22/2024

Primera División · Round 9Estadio Zorros del Desierto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cobreloa31%

×Draw26%

A. Italiano42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobreloaExpected goals in this matchA. Italiano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.40

Cobreloa

1.17

A. Italiano

1.40

A. Italiano creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.06

creates per match

1.38

1.42

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Cobreloa

1.06

A. Italiano

1.38

allows per match

Cobreloa

1.42

A. Italiano

1.27

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Cobreloa-0.06on par

A. Italiano-0.02on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobreloa ↓

A. Italiano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cobreloa or draw

58%

Cobreloa or A. Italiano

74%

Draw or A. Italiano

69%

Winning margin

Cobreloa wins by 2+

13%

A. Italiano wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cobreloa 1+ goals

69%

Cobreloa 2+ goals

33%

Cobreloa 3+ goals

11%

A. Italiano 1+ goals

75%

A. Italiano 2+ goals

41%

A. Italiano 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cobreloa (draw refunded)

43%

A. Italiano (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobreloa at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.42 · 5 matches

A. Italiano away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobreloa attack 1.06 + A. Italiano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

A. Italiano attack 1.38 + Cobreloa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cobreloa scores more

31%

level

26%

A. Italiano scores more

42%

A. Italiano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "A. Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Ó. Ustari

A. Italiano · G

8.3

Match Events

37'

A. Riep

45+2'

I. Jeraldino↳ C. Muñoz

46'

R. Hernández← N. Palma

46'

J. Soto← T. Roco

59'

Christian Bravo

68'

L. Parra← G. Rodríguez

68'

M. Sandoval← L. García

68'

G. Álvarez↳ A. Riep

70'

T. Rodríguez← G. Ríos

70'

L. Palacios← I. Jeraldino

70'

O. Rojas← A. Riep

80'

Nicolás FernándezCard reviewed

82'

S. Dittborn← G. Guiffrey

83'

P. Guajardo← G. Álvarez

90+6'

Santiago Dittborn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CobreloaA.

Overview

50%Possession50%

16Total Shots19

1.03Expected Goals (xG)2.30

5Corners1

14Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots19

6On Target8

9Off Target9

1Blocked2

7Inside Box9

9Outside Box10

Passing

50%Possession50%

412Total Passes413

335Accurate Passes341

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1