A. Italiano 2–0 Cobreloa: Result & Stats

A. Italiano

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cobreloa

S. Dittborn 84'

N. Orellana 27'

9/14/2024

Primera División · Round 24Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

A. Italiano62%

×Draw20%

Cobreloa17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A. ItalianoExpected goals in this matchCobreloa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.03

A. Italiano

2.13

Cobreloa

1.03

A. Italiano creates 107% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 15 away

1.59

creates per match

0.87

1.20

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

A. Italiano

1.59

Cobreloa

0.87

allows per match

A. Italiano

1.20

Cobreloa

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

A. Italiano+0.00on par

Cobreloa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

A. Italiano ↓

Cobreloa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

A. Italiano or draw

83%

A. Italiano or Cobreloa

80%

Draw or Cobreloa

38%

Winning margin

A. Italiano wins by 2+

39%

Cobreloa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

A. Italiano 1+ goals

88%

A. Italiano 2+ goals

63%

A. Italiano 3+ goals

35%

Cobreloa 1+ goals

64%

Cobreloa 2+ goals

28%

Cobreloa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

A. Italiano (draw refunded)

78%

Cobreloa (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

A. Italiano at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.20 · 113 matches

Cobreloa away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

A. Italiano attack 1.59 + Cobreloa defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Cobreloa attack 0.87 + A. Italiano defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

A. Italiano scores more

62%

level

20%

Cobreloa scores more

17%

A. Italiano at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "A. Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

N. Orellana

A. Italiano · M

7.7

Match Events

-5'

-5'

-5'

10'

23'

P. Guajardo← N. Bazán

27'

40'

53'

61'

64'

N. Orrego← M. Borgnino

66'

Tomás Ahumada

68'

S. Dittborn← L. Palacios

68'

L. Arriagada← M. Collao

69'

Javier ParraguezGoal cancelled

72'

Javier Parraguez

81'

L. Di Maio← Y. Águila

81'

B. Valdés← N. Donadell

82'

Lucas Di Maio

83'

D. Monreal← N. Orellana

83'

A. Riep← R. Cecchini

84'

S. Dittborn↳ A. Riep

88'

Javier ParraguezPenalty cancelled

89'

Javier Parraguez

89'

Javier Parraguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

A.Cobreloa

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots6

2Corners4

10Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots6

5On Target2

2Off Target4

0Blocked0

6Inside Box3

1Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

242Total Passes395

168Accurate Passes304

69%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls13

6Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

0Offsides1