Coatepecano IB 1–0 Achuapa: Result & Stats

Coatepecano IB

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Achuapa

4/7/2024

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 14Estadio Israel Barrios

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Coatepecano IB47%

×Draw27%

Achuapa26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coatepecano IBExpected goals in this matchAchuapa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.94

Coatepecano IB

1.38

Achuapa

0.94

Coatepecano IB creates 47% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 122 away

1.00

creates per match

0.70

1.19

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Coatepecano IB

1.00

Achuapa

0.70

allows per match

Coatepecano IB

1.19

Achuapa

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coatepecano IB+0.00on par

Achuapa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coatepecano IB ↓

Achuapa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Coatepecano IB or draw

74%

Coatepecano IB or Achuapa

73%

Draw or Achuapa

53%

Winning margin

Coatepecano IB wins by 2+

23%

Achuapa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coatepecano IB 1+ goals

75%

Coatepecano IB 2+ goals

40%

Coatepecano IB 3+ goals

16%

Achuapa 1+ goals

61%

Achuapa 2+ goals

24%

Achuapa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Coatepecano IB (draw refunded)

65%

Achuapa (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coatepecano IB at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Achuapa away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.75 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coatepecano IB attack 1.00 + Achuapa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Achuapa attack 0.70 + Coatepecano IB defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Coatepecano IB scores more

47%

level

27%

Achuapa scores more

26%

Coatepecano IB at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Coatepecano IB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff