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Achuapa vs Coatepecano IB — Liga Nacional 2019

Achuapa
Achuapa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coatepecano IB
Coatepecano IB
10/29/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 14Estadio Municipal Manuel Ariza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Achuapa60%
×Draw23%
Coatepecano IB17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Achuapa
1.75
Coatepecano IB
0.79

Achuapa creates 122% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 16 away

creates per match

Achuapa
1.25
Coatepecano IB
0.56

allows per match

Achuapa
1.02
Coatepecano IB
2.25

finishing

Achuapa+0.00on par
Coatepecano IB+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achuapa ↓

Coatepecano IB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Achuapa or draw
83%
Achuapa or Coatepecano IB
77%
Draw or Coatepecano IB
40%

Winning margin

Achuapa wins by 2+
34%
Coatepecano IB wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Achuapa 1+ goals
83%
Achuapa 2+ goals
52%
Achuapa 3+ goals
25%
Coatepecano IB 1+ goals
55%
Coatepecano IB 2+ goals
19%
Coatepecano IB 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Achuapa (draw refunded)
78%
Coatepecano IB (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achuapa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 123 matches

Coatepecano IB away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achuapa attack 1.25 + Coatepecano IB defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Coatepecano IB attack 0.56 + Achuapa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Achuapa scores more
60%
level
23%
Coatepecano IB scores more
17%

Achuapa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Achuapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Achuapa 1–0 Coatepecano IB

Achuapa beat Coatepecano IB 1-0 in Liga Nacional on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Ariza in El Progreso, Jutiapa.