Coachella 1–6 City SC: Result & Stats

Coachella

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

City SC

6/20/2025

USL League Two · Western Conference - 11Cathedral City High School Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Coachella10%

×Draw11%

City SC79%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoachellaExpected goals in this matchCity SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

4.04

Coachella

1.46

City SC

4.04

City SC creates 177% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

2.08

6.00

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Coachella

1.00

City SC

2.08

allows per match

Coachella

6.00

City SC

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coachella+0.00on par

City SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coachella ↓

City SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–45%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–37%

1–47%

2

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

Coachella or draw

21%

Coachella or City SC

89%

Draw or City SC

90%

Winning margin

Coachella wins by 2+

4%

City SC wins by 2+

63%

Team goals

Coachella 1+ goals

77%

Coachella 2+ goals

43%

Coachella 3+ goals

18%

City SC 1+ goals

98%

City SC 2+ goals

90%

City SC 3+ goals

74%

Draw no bet

Coachella (draw refunded)

11%

City SC (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coachella at home — creates 1.00, concedes 6.00 · 10 matches

City SC away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coachella attack 1.00 + City SC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

City SC attack 2.08 + Coachella defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Coachella scores more

10%

level

11%

City SC scores more

79%

City SC at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "City SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff