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City SC vs Coachella — USL League Two 2026

City SC
City SC
FT
10 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
Coachella
Coachella
5/18/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 3Canyon Crest Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

City SC93%
×Draw5%
Coachella3%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

City SC
5.47
Coachella
1.03

City SC creates 431% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

City SC
2.50
Coachella
0.73

allows per match

City SC
1.33
Coachella
8.45

finishing

City SC+0.00on par
Coachella+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

City SC ↓

Coachella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (8%) · grid covers 52% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

City SC or draw
97%
City SC or Coachella
95%
Draw or Coachella
7%

Winning margin

City SC wins by 2+
83%
Coachella wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

City SC 1+ goals
99%
City SC 2+ goals
96%
City SC 3+ goals
87%
Coachella 1+ goals
64%
Coachella 2+ goals
28%
Coachella 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

City SC (draw refunded)
97%
Coachella (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

City SC at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Coachella away — creates 0.73, concedes 8.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

City SC attack 2.50 + Coachella defence 8.45 → ÷2 → 5.47

Coachella attack 0.73 + City SC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

City SC scores more
93%
level
5%
Coachella scores more
3%

City SC at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "City SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: City SC vs Coachella

City SC beat Coachella 10-0 in USL League Two on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Canyon Crest Academy in San Diego, California.