Coachella 1–4 AMSG: Result & Stats | USL League Two

Coachella

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

AMSG

5/12/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 1Desert Mirage High School Athetic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Coachella17%

×Draw14%

AMSG69%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoachellaExpected goals in this matchAMSG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

3.61

Coachella

1.81

AMSG

3.61

AMSG creates 99% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.18

creates per match

1.31

5.91

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Coachella

1.18

AMSG

1.31

allows per match

Coachella

5.91

AMSG

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coachella+0.00on par

AMSG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coachella ↓

AMSG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–37%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–46%

3

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

Coachella or draw

31%

Coachella or AMSG

86%

Draw or AMSG

83%

Winning margin

Coachella wins by 2+

7%

AMSG wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Coachella 1+ goals

84%

Coachella 2+ goals

54%

Coachella 3+ goals

27%

AMSG 1+ goals

97%

AMSG 2+ goals

87%

AMSG 3+ goals

67%

Draw no bet

Coachella (draw refunded)

19%

AMSG (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coachella at home — creates 1.18, concedes 5.91 · 11 matches

AMSG away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coachella attack 1.18 + AMSG defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.81

AMSG attack 1.31 + Coachella defence 5.91 → ÷2 → 3.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Coachella scores more

17%

level

14%

AMSG scores more

69%

AMSG at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "AMSG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff