Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AMSG vs Coachella — USL League Two 2026

AMSG
AMSG
FT
15 – 0
HT: 8 – 0
Coachella
Coachella
6/26/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 14Boswell Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

AMSG94%
×Draw4%
Coachella2%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AMSG
6.31
Coachella
1.19

AMSG creates 430% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

AMSG
2.12
Coachella
0.50

allows per match

AMSG
1.88
Coachella
10.50

finishing

AMSG+0.00on par
Coachella+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AMSG ↓

Coachella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 44% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
89%11%4.5
76%24%

Double chance

AMSG or draw
98%
AMSG or Coachella
96%
Draw or Coachella
6%

Winning margin

AMSG wins by 2+
85%
Coachella wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

AMSG 1+ goals
100%
AMSG 2+ goals
98%
AMSG 3+ goals
91%
Coachella 1+ goals
70%
Coachella 2+ goals
33%
Coachella 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AMSG (draw refunded)
98%
Coachella (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AMSG at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Coachella away — creates 0.50, concedes 10.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AMSG attack 2.12 + Coachella defence 10.50 → ÷2 → 6.31

Coachella attack 0.50 + AMSG defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

AMSG scores more
94%
level
4%
Coachella scores more
2%

AMSG at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "AMSG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: AMSG 15–0 Coachella

AMSG beat Coachella 15-0 in USL League Two on June 26, 2025.

The match was played at Boswell Field in Westminster.