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Clyde vs Motherwell — League Cup 2018

Clyde
Clyde
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Motherwell
Motherwell
7/12/2025League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1New Douglas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Clyde22%
×Draw24%
Motherwell54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clyde
0.95
Motherwell
1.66

Motherwell creates 75% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Clyde
1.14
Motherwell
1.46

allows per match

Clyde
1.86
Motherwell
0.77

finishing

Clyde+0.00on par
Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clyde ↓

Motherwell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Clyde or draw
46%
Clyde or Motherwell
76%
Draw or Motherwell
78%

Winning margin

Clyde wins by 2+
7%
Motherwell wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Clyde 1+ goals
61%
Clyde 2+ goals
25%
Clyde 3+ goals
7%
Motherwell 1+ goals
81%
Motherwell 2+ goals
49%
Motherwell 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Clyde (draw refunded)
29%
Motherwell (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clyde at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clyde attack 1.14 + Motherwell defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Motherwell attack 1.46 + Clyde defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Clyde scores more
22%
level
24%
Motherwell scores more
54%

Motherwell at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Clyde 2–2 Motherwell

Clyde and Motherwell drew 2-2 in League Cup on July 12, 2025.

The match was played at New Douglas Park in Hamilton.