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Clyde vs Motherwell — League Cup 2018

Clyde
Clyde
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Motherwell
Motherwell
7/20/2024League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4ZLX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Clyde20%
×Draw23%
Motherwell57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clyde
0.96
Motherwell
1.79

Motherwell creates 86% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Clyde
1.14
Motherwell
1.71

allows per match

Clyde
1.86
Motherwell
0.79

finishing

Clyde+0.00on par
Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clyde ↓

Motherwell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Clyde or draw
43%
Clyde or Motherwell
77%
Draw or Motherwell
80%

Winning margin

Clyde wins by 2+
7%
Motherwell wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Clyde 1+ goals
62%
Clyde 2+ goals
25%
Clyde 3+ goals
7%
Motherwell 1+ goals
83%
Motherwell 2+ goals
53%
Motherwell 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Clyde (draw refunded)
26%
Motherwell (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clyde at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clyde attack 1.14 + Motherwell defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Motherwell attack 1.71 + Clyde defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Clyde scores more
20%
level
23%
Motherwell scores more
57%

Motherwell at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Clyde vs Motherwell

Motherwell beat Clyde 3-1 in League Cup on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at ZLX Stadium in Hamilton.