Clyde 3–3 Berwick Rangers: Result & Stats

Clyde

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Berwick Rangers

J. Rankin 69'

D. Cogill 64'

D. Goodwillie 54'

P. Willis 45+1'

S. Murphy 36', 18'

12/1/2018

League Two · Round 14Broadwood Stadium (Cumbernauld)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Clyde66%

×Draw19%

Berwick Rangers15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClydeExpected goals in this matchBerwick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.93

Clyde

2.20

Berwick Rangers

0.93

Clyde creates 137% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 18 away

1.57

creates per match

0.78

1.08

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Clyde

1.57

Berwick Rangers

0.78

allows per match

Clyde

1.08

Berwick Rangers

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clyde+0.00on par

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clyde ↓

Berwick Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Clyde or draw

85%

Clyde or Berwick Rangers

81%

Draw or Berwick Rangers

34%

Winning margin

Clyde wins by 2+

42%

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Clyde 1+ goals

89%

Clyde 2+ goals

64%

Clyde 3+ goals

37%

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals

61%

Berwick Rangers 2+ goals

24%

Berwick Rangers 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Clyde (draw refunded)

82%

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clyde at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.08 · 72 matches

Berwick Rangers away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clyde attack 1.57 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.20

Berwick Rangers attack 0.78 + Clyde defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Clyde scores more

66%

level

19%

Berwick Rangers scores more

15%

Clyde at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Clyde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

28'

36'

38'

45'

J. Boyle← K. Syvertsen

45+1'

P. Willis

54'

D. Goodwillie

63'

G. Phillips← J. Neill

64'

D. Cogill

69'

J. Rankin

80'

A. Belmokhtar← D. Cogill

90+3'

G. Hurst← A. Murrell

Clyde

Berwick

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: D. Lennon

38'▲S. Rumsby←▼M. McNiff

45'▲J. Boyle←▼K. Syvertsen

80'▲A. Belmokhtar←▼D. Cogill

Clyde substitutes

RumsbyBoyleBelmokhtarLoveDuffieHughesLang

Manager: J. Harvey

28'▲A. Murrell←▼D. Healy

63'▲G. Phillips←▼J. Neill

90+3'▲G. Hurst←▼A. Murrell

Berwick Rangers substitutes

MurrellPhillipsHurstNdongoHamiltonOgilvieCarlin