Berwick Rangers 2–3 Clyde: Result & Stats

Berwick Rangers

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Clyde

J. Ogilvie 40'

C. Scott 27'

A. Belmokhtar 90+2', 53'

D. Goodwillie 47'

9/29/2018

League Two · Round 8Shielfield Park (Berwick-upon-Tweed, Northumberland)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Berwick Rangers22%

×Draw22%

Clyde56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Berwick RangersExpected goals in this matchClyde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.88

Berwick Rangers

1.08

Clyde

1.88

Clyde creates 74% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 71 away

0.71

creates per match

1.46

2.29

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Berwick Rangers

0.71

Clyde

1.46

allows per match

Berwick Rangers

2.29

Clyde

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Clyde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berwick Rangers ↓

Clyde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Berwick Rangers or draw

44%

Berwick Rangers or Clyde

78%

Draw or Clyde

78%

Winning margin

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+

8%

Clyde wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals

66%

Berwick Rangers 2+ goals

29%

Berwick Rangers 3+ goals

10%

Clyde 1+ goals

85%

Clyde 2+ goals

56%

Clyde 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)

28%

Clyde (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berwick Rangers at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

Clyde away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berwick Rangers attack 0.71 + Clyde defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.08

Clyde attack 1.46 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Berwick Rangers scores more

22%

level

22%

Clyde scores more

56%

Clyde at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Clyde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

C. Scott

40'

J. Ogilvie

45'

A. Belmokhtar← A. Love

47'

D. Goodwillie

53'

A. Belmokhtar

64'

R. Lyon← C. McStay

66'

C. Hamilton← R. Brown

66'

G. Hurst← J. Ogilvie

76'

J. Todd← C. Scott

82'

J. Boyle← J. Rankin

90+2'

A. Belmokhtar

Berwick

Clyde

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Ogilvie

⚽

▼

Scott

Manager: R. Horn

66'▲C. Hamilton←▼R. Brown

66'▲G. Hurst←▼J. Ogilvie

76'▲J. Todd←▼C. Scott

Berwick Rangers substitutes

HamiltonHurstToddMurrellOrruDabrowski

Manager: D. Lennon

45'▲A. Belmokhtar←▼A. Love

64'▲R. Lyon←▼C. McStay

82'▲J. Boyle←▼J. Rankin

Clyde substitutes

BelmokhtarLyonBoyleStewartDuffieMcGeeLang