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Club Universitario vs Always Ready — Primera División 2019

Club Universitario
Club Universitario
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Always Ready
Always Ready
10/12/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 22Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Club Universitario39%
×Draw25%
Always Ready37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Universitario
1.48
Always Ready
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 129 away

creates per match

Club Universitario
1.45
Always Ready
1.50

allows per match

Club Universitario
1.36
Always Ready
1.51

finishing

Club Universitario+0.00on par
Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Universitario ↓

Always Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Club Universitario or draw
63%
Club Universitario or Always Ready
75%
Draw or Always Ready
61%

Winning margin

Club Universitario wins by 2+
19%
Always Ready wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Club Universitario 1+ goals
77%
Club Universitario 2+ goals
43%
Club Universitario 3+ goals
19%
Always Ready 1+ goals
76%
Always Ready 2+ goals
42%
Always Ready 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Club Universitario (draw refunded)
51%
Always Ready (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Universitario at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.51 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Universitario attack 1.45 + Always Ready defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Always Ready attack 1.50 + Club Universitario defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Universitario scores more
39%
level
25%
Always Ready scores more
37%

Club Universitario at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Club Universitario 1–3 Always Ready

Always Ready beat Club Universitario 3-1 in Primera División on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.