Always Ready 4–0 Club Universitario: Result & Stats

Always Ready

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Club Universitario

7/30/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Municipal El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Always Ready72%

×Draw17%

Club Universitario10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Always ReadyExpected goals in this matchClub Universitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.74

Always Ready

2.31

Club Universitario

0.74

Always Ready creates 212% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 22 away

2.58

creates per match

0.59

0.89

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Always Ready

2.58

Club Universitario

0.59

allows per match

Always Ready

0.89

Club Universitario

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par

Club Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

Club Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw

90%

Always Ready or Club Universitario

83%

Draw or Club Universitario

28%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+

49%

Club Universitario wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals

90%

Always Ready 2+ goals

67%

Always Ready 3+ goals

40%

Club Universitario 1+ goals

52%

Club Universitario 2+ goals

17%

Club Universitario 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)

87%

Club Universitario (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.89 · 129 matches

Club Universitario away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 2.58 + Club Universitario defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.31

Club Universitario attack 0.59 + Always Ready defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Always Ready scores more

72%

level

17%

Club Universitario scores more

10%

Always Ready at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff