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Club River Plate vs 3 de Febrero — Division Intermedia 2018

Club River Plate
Club River Plate
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
J. Silva 48'
5/23/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 9Estadio River Plate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Club River Plate41%
×Draw28%
3 de Febrero31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club River Plate
1.28
3 de Febrero
1.07

Club River Plate creates 20% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 78 away

creates per match

Club River Plate
1.24
3 de Febrero
1.03

allows per match

Club River Plate
1.11
3 de Febrero
1.32

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par
3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

3 de Febrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw
69%
Club River Plate or 3 de Febrero
72%
Draw or 3 de Febrero
59%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+
18%
3 de Febrero wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals
72%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
37%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
14%
3 de Febrero 1+ goals
66%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
29%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)
57%
3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.24 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + Club River Plate defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Club River Plate scores more
41%
level
28%
3 de Febrero scores more
31%

Club River Plate at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Club River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
J. Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club River Plate vs 3 de Febrero

3 de Febrero beat Club River Plate 1-0 in Division Intermedia on May 23, 2022.

Goals: J. Silva (48').

The match was played at Estadio River Plate in Asunción.