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3 de Febrero vs Club River Plate — Division Intermedia 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
FT
2 – 0
Club River Plate
Club River Plate
8/23/2017Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 25Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

3 de Febrero39%
×Draw28%
Club River Plate33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.25
Club River Plate
1.14

3 de Febrero creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 48 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.28
Club River Plate
1.02

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.26
Club River Plate
1.23

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Club River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
67%
3 de Febrero or Club River Plate
72%
Draw or Club River Plate
61%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
17%
Club River Plate wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
71%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
36%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
13%
Club River Plate 1+ goals
68%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
32%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
54%
Club River Plate (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Club River Plate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Club River Plate attack 1.02 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
39%
level
28%
Club River Plate scores more
33%

3 de Febrero at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: 3 de Febrero 2–0 Club River Plate

3 de Febrero beat Club River Plate 2-0 in Division Intermedia on August 23, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este).