Club Queretaro vs Toluca: Preview & Prediction

Club Queretaro

Preview

23:00

Toluca

8/22/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 5Estadio La Corregidora

Big match

40%

Club Queretaro

model favours

40%27%33%

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Club Queretaro40%

×Draw27%

Toluca33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchToluca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Club Queretaro

1.36

Toluca

1.21

Club Queretaro creates 12% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 149 away

1.20

creates per match

1.24

1.17

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.20

Toluca

1.24

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.17

Toluca

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Toluca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

67%

Club Queretaro or Toluca

73%

Draw or Toluca

60%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

19%

Toluca wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

74%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

39%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

16%

Toluca 1+ goals

70%

Toluca 2+ goals

34%

Toluca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

55%

Toluca (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.20 + Toluca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Toluca attack 1.24 + Club Queretaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

40%

level

27%

Toluca scores more

33%

Club Queretaro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Style contrast — Club Queretaro play Direct / counter-attacking, Toluca Defensively solid
Toluca outscore their xG (1.9 vs 1.3 expected)
Club Queretaro fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Club Queretaro

Direct / counter-attacking

Toluca

Defensively solid

35%Possession55%

72%Pass accuracy85%

9.5ShotsBiggest gap16.2

1.37xG1.27

Club QueretaroToluca

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2

Club Queretaro

3

Draws

5

Toluca

Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%

1–00–40–50–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Queretaro

LWDWW

Toluca

WDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Club Queretaro face Toluca (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Club Queretaro hosting Toluca. Match starts August 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Club Queretaro host Toluca at Estadio La Corregidora.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Club Queretaro vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Club Queretaro face Toluca (Liga MX)