Club Queretaro 1–0 Toluca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club Queretaro

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Toluca

J. Torres 31'

3/6/2023

Liga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Club Queretaro40%

×Draw27%

Toluca33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchToluca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.20

Club Queretaro

1.36

Toluca

1.20

Club Queretaro creates 13% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 149 away

1.20

creates per match

1.24

1.16

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.20

Toluca

1.24

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.16

Toluca

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Toluca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

67%

Club Queretaro or Toluca

73%

Draw or Toluca

60%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

19%

Toluca wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

74%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

39%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

16%

Toluca 1+ goals

70%

Toluca 2+ goals

34%

Toluca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

55%

Toluca (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.16 · 136 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.20 + Toluca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Toluca attack 1.24 + Club Queretaro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

40%

level

27%

Toluca scores more

33%

Club Queretaro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Alcalá

Club Queretaro · G

9.3

Match Events

23'

Christian Rivera

31'

J. Torres↳ P. Barrera

46'

Miguel Barbieri

46'

F. Navarro← É. López

46'

B. Angulo← J. Venegas

49'

Brian García

57'

R. López← E. Ayón

74'

R. Zúñiga← J. Torres

74'

D. Cervantes← M. Barbieri

74'

Alberto García← J. Perlaza

75'

S. Saucedo← M. Araújo

84'

O. Mendoza← R. Fernández

88'

J. Gamboa← B. García

89'

A. del Campo← L. Fernández

90'

Kevin Balanta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubToluca

Overview

24%Possession76%

7Total Shots22

3Corners8

13Fouls5

Shots

7Total Shots22

5On Target7

0Off Target10

2Blocked5

4Inside Box15

3Outside Box7

Passing

24%Possession76%

213Total Passes674

145Accurate Passes594

68%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3