Club Queretaro vs Monterrey: Preview & Prediction

Club Queretaro

Preview

23:00

Monterrey

9/5/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio La Corregidora

Big match

37%

Monterrey

model favours

36%27%37%

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Club Queretaro36%

×Draw27%

Monterrey37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.27

Club Queretaro

1.24

Monterrey

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 154 away

1.20

creates per match

1.36

1.17

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.20

Monterrey

1.36

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.17

Monterrey

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

63%

Club Queretaro or Monterrey

73%

Draw or Monterrey

64%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

15%

Monterrey wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

71%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

35%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

13%

Monterrey 1+ goals

72%

Monterrey 2+ goals

36%

Monterrey 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

49%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.20 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Monterrey attack 1.36 + Club Queretaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

36%

level

27%

Monterrey scores more

37%

Monterrey at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Style contrast — Club Queretaro play Direct / counter-attacking, Monterrey Possession-dominant
Monterrey outscore their xG (2.1 vs 1.6 expected)
Club Queretaro fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Club Queretaro

Direct / counter-attacking

Monterrey

Possession-dominant

35%PossessionBiggest gap55%

72%Pass accuracy84%

9.5Shots14.6

1.37xG1.55

Club QueretaroMonterrey

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1

Club Queretaro

3

Draws

6

Monterrey

Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 30%

0–40–12–41–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Queretaro

LWDWW

Monterrey

WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Club Queretaro face Monterrey (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Club Queretaro hosting Monterrey. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Club Queretaro host Monterrey at Estadio La Corregidora.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Club Queretaro vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Club Queretaro face Monterrey (Liga MX)