Club Queretaro 1–2 Monterrey: Result & Stats

Club Queretaro

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Monterrey

Camilo Sanvezzo 30'

M. Meza 90+1'

J. Gallardo 55'

1/19/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 3Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club Queretaro42%

×Draw24%

Monterrey33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.40

Club Queretaro

1.61

Monterrey

1.40

Club Queretaro creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.46

creates per match

1.17

1.63

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.46

Monterrey

1.17

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.63

Monterrey

1.76

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Club Queretaro-0.60scores less

Monterrey-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

67%

Club Queretaro or Monterrey

76%

Draw or Monterrey

58%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

22%

Monterrey wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

80%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

48%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

22%

Monterrey 1+ goals

75%

Monterrey 2+ goals

41%

Monterrey 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

56%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.46 + Monterrey defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.61

Monterrey attack 1.17 + Club Queretaro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

42%

level

24%

Monterrey scores more

33%

Club Queretaro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Camilo Sanvezzo

Club Queretaro · F

8.0

Match Events

12'

Leonel Vangioni

30'

Camilo Sanvezzo↳ A. Pérez

33'

Alexis Pérez

55'

J. Gallardo↳ C. Ortiz

59'

Leonel Vangioni

59'

Leonel Vangioni

68'

M. Meza← A. Hurtado

69'

E. Gutiérrez← D. Pabón

73'

A. Del Valle← M. Ruiz

79'

M. Britos← A. Loba

86'

J. Cortizo← J. Gómez

90+1'

M. Meza↳ J. Gallardo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubMonterrey

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots10

0Corners6

17Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots10

1On Target2

9Off Target5

7Blocked3

10Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

415Total Passes324

337Accurate Passes244

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Discipline

17Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0