Club Queretaro vs Colorado Rapids — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Club Queretaro19%
Colorado Rapids64%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Colorado Rapids creates 91% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over76
- Under24
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes69
- No31
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Club Queretaro ↓
Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches
Colorado Rapids away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Club Queretaro attack 1.25 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38
Colorado Rapids attack 2.75 + Club Queretaro defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.63
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 64%?"
Colorado Rapids at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 64% does not mean "Colorado Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Club Queretaro host Colorado Rapids on Sunday, 26 January 2025 at 16:30. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Friendlies Clubs: Club Queretaro 1–1 Colorado Rapids
Club Queretaro and Colorado Rapids drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 26, 2025.
Goals: Rafael Navarro (26').
The match was played at Estadio La Corregidora.