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Club Guarani vs Libertad Asuncion — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Club Guarani
Club Guarani
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
1/21/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 1Estadio Rogelio Silvino Livieres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Club Guarani29%
×Draw25%
Libertad Asuncion46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Guarani
1.21
Libertad Asuncion
1.58

Libertad Asuncion creates 31% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

creates per match

Club Guarani
1.34
Libertad Asuncion
1.84

allows per match

Club Guarani
1.31
Libertad Asuncion
1.07

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw
54%
Club Guarani or Libertad Asuncion
75%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
71%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+
12%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals
70%
Club Guarani 2+ goals
34%
Club Guarani 3+ goals
12%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
79%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
47%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)
39%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 98 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.34 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.84 + Club Guarani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Club Guarani scores more
29%
level
25%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
46%

Libertad Asuncion at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Guarani vs Libertad Asuncion

Club Guarani and Libertad Asuncion drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rogelio Silvino Livieres in Asunción.