Club Guarani 0–2 Cerro Porteno: Result & Stats

Club Guarani

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cerro Porteno

C. Dominguez 88' (pen), 58'

3/7/2026

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 9Estadio Rogelio Livieres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Club Guarani31%

×Draw27%

Cerro Porteno42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club GuaraniExpected goals in this matchCerro Porteno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.35

Club Guarani

1.11

Cerro Porteno

1.35

Cerro Porteno creates 22% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

1.17

creates per match

1.57

1.13

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Club Guarani

1.17

Cerro Porteno

1.57

allows per match

Club Guarani

1.13

Cerro Porteno

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Cerro Porteno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw

58%

Club Guarani or Cerro Porteno

73%

Draw or Cerro Porteno

69%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+

12%

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals

67%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

30%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

10%

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals

74%

Cerro Porteno 2+ goals

39%

Cerro Porteno 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

42%

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.17 + Cerro Porteno defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Cerro Porteno attack 1.57 + Club Guarani defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Club Guarani scores more

31%

level

27%

Cerro Porteno scores more

42%

Cerro Porteno at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Dominguez

Cerro Porteno · F

9.3

Match Events

45+2'

Diego Fernández

58'

C. Dominguez← C. Bobadilla

58'

C. Dominguez↳ J. Torres

63'

F. Fernandez← I. Ramirez

63'

C. E. Mino Amarilla← D. Fernandez

73'

J. Morel← R. Piris

77'

J. Llano← M. Lopez

78'

N. Romero← Jhon Sanchez

83'

M. Klimowicz← I. Aliseda

83'

W. Viera← F. Peralta

86'

Thiago Servin

88'

C. DominguezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubCerro

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots13

1.15Expected Goals (xG)2.38

3Corners3

18Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots13

3On Target7

6Off Target5

3Blocked1

7Inside Box12

5Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

331Total Passes357

222Accurate Passes245

67%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0